Goal
To find out which market is best for a dumb long term investor OR to a monkey investor who throws a stone at the wall and picks the stock on it.
Criteria
Return of the stock in last 10 year period from today (2024-Sep-22).
Resource
https://www.tradingview.com/screener/ gives a good overview of the metrics.
Methodology
An example screenshot of the American Stock market result is given below.
The same analysis is performed on the other markets.
- Ratio computes how much percentage of the companies gave 10x in 10 years.
- USD adjusted ratio tells the same story, but the returns are adjusted to USD.
Example:
In 2014 => 1 USD = 5.89 Vaenezuela Bolivar
In 2024 => 10 USD = 36804.3 Vaenezuela Bolivar
Growth = 36804.3 / 5.89 = 6248.61x
To achieve 6248.61x returns, the stock should gain 624761%
Number of companies that have >624761% in last 10 years are 5
USD Adjusted ratio = CompaniesWith10xInUsd / TotalCompanies = 5 / 31 = 16.13%
The source xl can be accessed »here«
Results
| Market | Total Companies (t) | >10x in 10 years (g) | Ratio in % (g/t) | USD Adjusted Ratio % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 570 | 254 | 44.56 | 0.35 |
| Australia | 1883 | 52 | 2.76 | 2.07 |
| Austria | 834 | 12 | 1.44 | 1.2 |
| Bahrain | 25 | 4 | 16 | 16 |
| Bangladesh | 394 | 8 | 2.03 | 0.76 |
| Belgium | 117 | 4 | 3.42 | 2.56 |
| Brazil | 1939 | 78 | 4.02 | 1.39 |
| Canada | 5379 | 121 | 2.25 | 1.86 |
| China | 5506 | 22 | 0.4 | 0.22 |
| Colombia | 101 | 13 | 12.87 | 11.88 |
| Cyprus | 41 | 3 | 7.32 | 4.88 |
| Czech Republic | 54 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Denmark | 161 | 4 | 2.48 | 0.62 |
| Egypt | 247 | 24 | 9.72 | 0.81 |
| Estonia | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Finland | 191 | 2 | 1.05 | 1.05 |
| France | 657 | 4 | 0.61 | 0.76 |
| Germany | 16423 | 502 | 3.06 | 2.48 |
| Greece | 146 | 6 | 4.11 | 4.11 |
| Hong Kong | 2532 | 10 | 0.39 | 0.43 |
| Hungary | 72 | 6 | 8.33 | 5.56 |
| Iceland | 32 | 1 | 3.13 | 0 |
| India | 6715 | 1052 | 15.67 | 11.48 |
| Indonesia | 859 | 21 | 2.44 | 2.1 |
| Israel | 516 | 25 | 4.84 | 5.23 |
| Italy | 1216 | 10 | 0.82 | 0.66 |
| Japan | 4039 | 42 | 1.04 | 0.59 |
| Kenya | 54 | 2 | 3.7 | 1.85 |
| Kuwait | 141 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Latvia | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lithuania | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Luxembourg | 121 | 1 | 0.83 | 0.83 |
| Malaysia | 1038 | 15 | 1.45 | 1.06 |
| Mexico | 1737 | 20 | 1.15 | 0.69 |
| Morocco | 71 | 1 | 1.41 | 1.41 |
| Netherlands | 110 | 3 | 2.73 | 2.73 |
| New Zealand | 117 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nigeria | 130 | 6 | 4.62 | 0 |
| Norway | 326 | 4 | 1.23 | 0.92 |
| Pakistan | 465 | 22 | 4.73 | 1.08 |
| Peru | 121 | 4 | 3.31 | 1.65 |
| Philippines | 308 | 3 | 0.97 | 0.97 |
| Poland | 748 | 25 | 3.34 | 2.14 |
| Portugal | 38 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Qatar | 54 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Romania | 229 | 22 | 9.61 | 7.86 |
| Russia | 255 | 42 | 16.47 | 4.31 |
| Saudi Arabia | 337 | 5 | 1.48 | 1.48 |
| Serbia | 22 | 3 | 13.64 | 9.09 |
| Singapore | 553 | 2 | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| Slovakia | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| South Africa | 262 | 2 | 0.76 | 0 |
| South Korea | 2728 | 29 | 1.06 | 0.95 |
| Spain | 248 | 2 | 0.81 | 0.4 |
| Sri Lanka | 290 | 3 | 1.03 | 0.34 |
| Sweden | 1191 | 33 | 2.77 | 1.43 |
| Switzerland | 751 | 3 | 0.4 | 0.67 |
| Taiwan | 2225 | 40 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Thailand | 1781 | 6 | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| Tunisia | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Turkey | 568 | 321 | 56.51 | 2.99 |
| UAE | 145 | 2 | 1.38 | 1.38 |
| UK | 4378 | 50 | 1.14 | 0.89 |
| USA | 13871 | 300 | 2.16 | 2.16 |
| Vaenezuela | 31 | 15 | 48.39 | 16.13 |
| Vietnam | 1313 | 21 | 1.6 | 0 |
Observations
- Even though Vaenezuela had hyper inflation, still 25% of the listed companies outperform the market.
Exceptions
- The companies which went bankrupt in the timeframe are not considered.
- There may be multiple listings of the same company in different stock exchanges. E.g: HDFC Bank Ltd is listed in BSE and NSE. All are considered for evaluation.
- Dividend of the stock is not considered.